nba projections
power ratings
Power ratings, off-season moves, real records, projected final records, seed and title probabilities for all 30 teams.
| # | team | conf | power | off-season moves | w-l | projected record | one seed | top 4 seed | playoffs | title | conf rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | SAS | West | 100 | 41.3 | 7-2 | 60-22 | 34.9% | 80.1% | 96.5% | 20.7% | 37-13 |
| 2 | OKC | West | 90 | -23.2 | 7-2 | 58-24 | 25.3% | 72.9% | 94.5% | 13.3% | 35-15 |
| 3 | DET | East | 80 | 5.5 | 6-2 | 54-28 | 22.3% | 64.1% | 90.0% | 8.6% | 34-16 |
| 4 | NYK | East | 80 | -31.2 | 4-4 | 51-31 | 14.1% | 52.4% | 84.4% | 7.8% | 31-19 |
| 5 | BOS | East | 77 | 24.0 | 7-2 | 53-29 | 18.8% | 59.0% | 87.6% | 7.1% | 33-17 |
| 6 | PHI | East | 75 | 38.1 | 8-2 | 52-30 | 17.2% | 57.9% | 87.1% | 6.1% | 33-17 |
| 7 | HOU | West | 72 | 20.3 | 7-2 | 52-30 | 10.4% | 49.6% | 84.7% | 4.9% | 31-19 |
| 8 | TOR | East | 71 | 68.4 | 5-4 | 48-34 | 9.5% | 42.3% | 78.1% | 4.8% | 30-20 |
| 9 | MIN | West | 70 | 15.8 | 7-3 | 50-32 | 7.6% | 41.6% | 80.5% | 4.5% | 30-20 |
| 10 | ATL | East | 65 | 33.5 | 6-4 | 48-34 | 8.0% | 38.8% | 75.8% | 3.8% | 31-19 |
| 11 | DEN | West | 68 | 1.7 | 4-3 | 48-34 | 6.0% | 36.0% | 75.8% | 3.6% | 29-21 |
| 12 | POR | West | 64 | 31.2 | 6-2 | 48-34 | 5.9% | 35.2% | 75.2% | 3.0% | 30-20 |
| 13 | LAL | West | 62 | -27.8 | 8-2 | 48-34 | 5.6% | 34.6% | 75.5% | 2.8% | 29-21 |
| 14 | PHX | West | 57 | 39.2 | 2-5 | 43-39 | 2.1% | 20.6% | 61.5% | 1.8% | 25-25 |
| 15 | MIA | East | 55 | 26.9 | 3-6 | 41-41 | 2.4% | 19.2% | 56.3% | 1.6% | 26-24 |
| 16 | CLE | East | 52 | -40.5 | 5-4 | 42-40 | 3.1% | 22.6% | 58.6% | 1.5% | 26-24 |
| 17 | ORL | East | 54 | 0.0 | 2-6 | 41-41 | 2.5% | 18.6% | 55.4% | 1.4% | 25-25 |
| 18 | CHA | East | 46 | -75.2 | 3-7 | 37-45 | 1.1% | 11.2% | 42.5% | 0.8% | 22-28 |
| 19 | GSW | West | 43 | 3.1 | 6-3 | 40-42 | 1.4% | 14.2% | 50.4% | 0.6% | 25-25 |
| 20 | LAC | West | 31 | -80.0 | 1-7 | 32-50 | 0.2% | 3.5% | 24.7% | 0.2% | 20-30 |
| 21 | NOP | West | 34 | 5.2 | 4-5 | 34-48 | 0.3% | 5.3% | 30.5% | 0.2% | 21-29 |
| 22 | IND | East | 26 | 33.4 | 3-6 | 31-51 | 0.3% | 3.5% | 21.0% | 0.2% | 18-32 |
| 23 | BKN | East | 23 | 49.4 | 2-6 | 30-52 | 0.2% | 2.9% | 18.0% | 0.1% | 17-33 |
| 24 | WAS | East | 26 | 80.0 | 4-5 | 32-50 | 0.4% | 4.6% | 23.2% | 0.1% | 19-31 |
| 25 | DAL | West | 23 | -38.3 | 5-4 | 32-50 | 0.1% | 3.6% | 22.7% | 0.1% | 19-31 |
| 26 | CHI | East | 22 | -0.5 | 1-7 | 29-53 | 0.1% | 2.4% | 16.0% | 0.1% | 17-33 |
| 27 | SAC | West | 13 | -28.2 | 1-8 | 25-57 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 8.9% | 0.1% | 14-36 |
| 28 | MEM | West | 13 | -31.8 | 6-3 | 29-53 | 0.1% | 1.9% | 14.6% | 0.1% | 19-31 |
| 29 | UTA | West | 0 | -42.8 | 1-8 | 21-61 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 3.9% | 0.0% | 12-38 |
| 30 | MIL | East | 5 | -80.0 | 1-8 | 23-59 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 5.7% | 0.0% | 13-37 |
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power = strength on a 0–100 scale, 50 = an average team
Off-Season Moves = percentile shift from roster changes (July, preseason)
W–L = real record
Projected Record = real wins plus the rest of the season simulated, over 82; ± = 90% CI on wins (p5–p95)
Title = championship probability
Conf Rec = projected intra-conference W–L